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Every year, on the run up to the New Year, my favourite publication, The Economist, publishes a special magazine titled ‘The World in…” which details a plethora of predictions – usually about world affairs – made by its team of staff and guest contributors. It’s a great read and gives some excellent insights in to where these super smart journalists and analysts think the world is heading in the coming year. They’re not always right, of course, and a couple of editions ago they failed to predict the then-looming financial crisis. That said, aside from Peter Schiff and Dr Doom himself, Nouriel Roubini, who else did?

So, as we approach 2010 and the anticipation of The Economist’s latest ‘World in 2010’ (because I know, like me, you can’t wait either) I thought I’d have a stab at crystal ball gazing myself.

Nothing to do with social media

If you’re anything like me you’re probably sick of the end-of-year surplus supply of ‘what’s next in social media’ predictions being bandied about by the gurus. I prefer to use the social media that’s with us here and now in the real world. Navel gaze about that stuff all you like but it’s not going to help your clients much.

Recovery, recovery, recovery

It’s safe to say that the worst of the financial crisis is behind us. That’s not to say we don’t have a tough time ahead however. Government debt is rampant, deficits are high and unemployment is improving, but only in the sense that the rate of unemployment has plateaued. All that said, and despite the delicacy of the situation, we’ll begin to see an improvement in confidence as private companies begin to unbatten the hatches, make investments and begin to take on new staff. The public sector (in Britain at least) will be face cuts as governments try to repair their heavily damaged balance sheets.

Prediction:

A ‘V’ shaped recovery. The time it takes to get back where we were, though, will be long.

BRICs get a greater say

As world power continues to shift from West to East (it’s happening) emerging economies including the so called BRIC countries (the moniker given to the rise of Brazil, Russia, India and China by Goldman Sachs) will get a seat at the table and a greater say in world events. Some countries like China have already raised concerns of the unfair workings of the G20 system.

Prediction:

China begins to accept its world/super power status and stops thinking of itself as an emerging economy.

Britain and Russia seek to warm cold ties

Over the last few years the relationship between Britain and Russia has been, to put it mildly, somewhat cold. A number of controversial incidents in recent times have caused the two nations to do battle in political rhetoric and undiplomatic gestures. An alleged assassination by an ex-KGB operative, the war against Georgia and the deportation of British diplomats in Moscow are considered the three main catalysts for these sour relations.

Lately, however, both countries are engaging on friendlier terms as both share a common interest in preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear power. In a joint press conference at the beginning of November, both Britain’s Foreign Secretary and Russia’s Foreign Minister made a joint demand to Iran to respond to the United Nations on questions regarding its nuclear fuel.

Prediction:

Relations between the two countries continue to improve as both realise their joint vested interests.

Europe: not exactly water tight

At a time when it soon elects its first permanent President of the European Council, British opposition leader, David Cameron, concedes defeat on the Lisbon Treaty and the two of its wealthiest nations, Germany and France, show unity during the financial crisis, you could say the European Union is stronger than ever. And you’d be right. That’s not to say it’s in perfect harmony though.

There are still underlying issues as one might expect when trying to unify a group of nations with self interests. Britain perhaps the most maverick of member states has often been the least cooperative as it seeks to protect its interests in the financial industry. Nevertheless progress has been made and the announcement of the new president in January will only help solidify the European Union’s status as a superpower.

Prediction:

The President of the United States will have a single number to call when he wants to speak to Europe.